As a result, we could see a repeat of what happened in 2012, when a Tuareg insurgency took control of the north of the country and almost took control of the country. Such a withdrawal leaves a security vacuum in the north of the country that will most likely be exploited by terrorist groups, as both the Malian army and the Minusma Blue Helmets lack the resources and popular support to ensure order. The French withdrawal this month from Timbuktu in the north of the country is a case in point. Sahel: Paris leaves and uncertainty sets in: France will almost certainly continue to reduce its presence in Mali, whether or not there is a change in the Elysée. This strategy is likely to get Kiev to give up on negotiating with Russia on conflict resolution. For Putin, it is better to keep the West in fear of intervention by deploying troops than by waging war.
Such an action would result in NATO intervention and Russia's ailing economy would struggle to sustain the war in the long run. However, it is highly unlikely that Russia will venture into a war with Ukraine. Moscow's calculated brinkmanship in deploying troops along the border is likely to continue this year, especially if Kiev continues to show signs of rapprochement with the West. Such an event also occurred in April this year. Ukraine, Russian bear still on the prowl: Tensions in the Ukrainian conflict have escalated this month, with Moscow deploying troops near the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. With two weeks to go until the end of 2021, we can make an estimate of some geopolitical developments that may occur based on what has happened this year:
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